Europe has taken a battering from the Trump administration, and there can be little doubt that New Zealand and Aussie are next. While NATO allies have scrambled to meet Washington’s 2% defence spending demand, the Asia-Pacific remains woefully unprepared for what’s coming: a hard-nosed, deal-cutting U.S. president who sees military investment not as a voluntary contribution, but a debt to be settled.
The Chinese Wake-Up Call New Zealand Slept Through
The warning signs are already flashing in neon. China’s first-of-its-kind live-fire exercises in the Tasman Sea—astonishingly close to Sydney—should be a wake-up call. It took a Virgin Australia pilot to alert authorities to the drills. That’s not a mistake—it’s a national humiliation. And what has New Zealand done for decades? Cut defense spending. The former Labour government left the country’s military threadbare, a legacy that now places Wellington in an unenviable position.
Henare and the Labour Government’s Legacy of Weakness
The previous Defence Minister under Jacinda Ardern, Peeni Henare, was known behind closed doors for his defeatist stance on China, privately stating that Beijing is so big, it can do whatever it wants in the Pacific. That attitude allowed China to systematically dismantle democracy in the Solomon Islands and exert unchecked influence across the Pacific. The result? The latest standoff in the Cook Islands, where local officials signed a deal with China behind New Zealand’s back, despite Wellington being responsible for its defense and external affairs. That humiliation is headline news because it shows what even our neighbours think of us.
Judith Collins Sounds the Alarm on Economic Security and Defense
New Zealand’s Defence Minister, Judith Collins, was at the Munich Security Conference, where I also witnessed firsthand the brutal dressing-down of Europe by U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance over its failure to meet NATO’s 2% defence spending target. Watching Vance publicly lambaste European nations for their military negligence must have made Collins’ blood run cold—because if Washington is this unrelenting with Europe, New Zealand’s far worse defense position puts it squarely in the crosshairs next.
Collins, has rightly lambasted the former Labour government for scrapping the Skyhawk Air Combat Force under Helen Clark. She’s been blunt about the brutal truth: New Zealand talks about economic security, but you can’t have that without defense. And she’s right—because right now, the country has neither.
New Zealand’s Enormous EEZ—and No Means to Defend It
The fourth-largest Exclusive Economic Zone in the world belongs to New Zealand, but what does it have to defend it? A couple of frigates and a polite diplomatic note. Meanwhile, China and other nations eye its potential oil and gas riches, sitting largely untouched because of Labour’s lunatic offshore drilling ban. Even in an era where economic security should be paramount, Wellington refused to acknowledge the vast resources it has at its disposal until recently.
The Defense Spending Reality Check
New Zealand spends a pitiful 1.22% of its GDP on defence, with projections to fall below 1%. This is in contrast to Australia, which at least spends 1.92% of GDP and is on track to increase it to 2.4% by 2027. If Europe has struggled to meet NATO’s 2% threshold, imagine how New Zealand will fare when Trump starts demanding real commitments. The country has let its military atrophy while Australia, at least, is recognizing the coming storm and adjusting accordingly.
Trump is Coming, and He’s Not Playing Around
And it’s about to get worse. New Zealand’s loud support for Palestine, along with its hypothetical threats to arrest Netanyahu should he ever set foot in the country, have left it geopolitically adrift. Contrast this with Trump, who talks about turning Gaza into a ‘Riviera of the Middle East’—and, knowing his taste, it would probably look more like Vegas. Whether one agrees or not, it’s clear where the U.S. administration’s sympathies lie, and New Zealand’s out-of-step foreign policy choices will only make it an easier target when Washington turns its gaze south.
Then there’s AUKUS. Or rather, New Zealand’s deliberate snubbing of it. Refusing to allow U.S. nuclear-powered ships into its ports was a bold ideological stand—thirty years ago. Today, it is a strategic liability. Australia, at least, is hedging its bets, but New Zealand has bet on goodwill and geography. That gamble won’t pay off when Trump starts asking serious questions about Wellington’s contributions to regional security.
Winston Peters Knows the Stakes, but Talking Tough Won’t Be Enough
Foreign Minister Winston Peters’ recent presence in Saudi Arabia at a boxing event was no accident. He knows Trump sees Riyadh as a major power broker—the place where negotiations happen, from Russia-Ukraine peace talks to major energy deals. He’s positioning himself to be in Trump’s good books. But talking tough won’t be enough. The days of freeloading off the goodwill of the United States are over.
Trump is coming, expect an invoice in hand and little patience for excuses. New Zealand and Australia had better get the checkbook ready.
Will Trafford is a freelance journalist based in London, specializing in geopolitics and energy. He has previously worked for NBC News, Māori Television, Al Jazeera, and the New Zealand Herald.
